Climate outlooks
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NOAA released their latest outlook for December and for December through January today. The new forecasts are not a big change from previous forecasts, and the 3-month winter forecast is still leaning towards the development of a weak El Nino, with wetter than normal conditions expected in the southern part of the Southeast along the…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
Even though it seems too cold to ever worry about severe weather again, the Southeast will undergo significant warming over the next few days, reaching up to 70 degrees by Sunday. As the warm air flows back in ahead of a cold front, the chances of rain and thunderstorms, some even reaching severe levels, will…
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My meteorologist and climatologist friends have been posting one story after another about the extreme cold weather we have experienced in the past day. Today many areas set records for low maximum temperature, and some record lows were set. Tomorrow morning, many more record lows are expected to be broken. The Southeast Regional Climate Center…
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The cool conditions continue for at least the next week. Rain is expected to move into the area on Sunday night and last through Monday, bringing up to 1.5 inches to some areas. After that, even colder air moves into the state, with the possibility of breaking record low maximum temperatures on Tuesday and low…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
One of the toughest things for climatologists to explain is what a 55 percent chance of El Nino or a 40 percent chance of an above normal winter is. Two examples of probabilistic forecasts are shown below. The pie chart is from AgroClimate.org and the bar graph is from IRI at Columbia University. Most people think…
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Here is the 4 pm temperature map from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network: And here is the surface analysis at the same time: Can you find the front on the temperature map? Cold fronts mark the boundary between warm air in place and the cold air that is advancing into the warm air. In…
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In the past few weeks there have been many forecasts for the coming winter made online. Most are from bloggers with limited meteorological or climatological training, and should be taken with a large grain of salt. Others, from places like the Farmers’ Almanac, are mysteriously produced and vaguely worded so that they can claim they…