The typical summer weather pattern is here and is expected to stay in the area for at least the next couple of weeks. This week looks relatively dry, but scattered daily showers and thunderstorms may hit some fields and miss others under weak steering currents, especially in week 2. By mid-month we may see another frontal passage that will provide more widespread rain. Temperatures are expected to be above normal based on long-term temperature trends across the region. Precipitation predictions are listed as “equal chances” by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center because summer rainfall is hard to predict since it is so local in scale. The coastal plains look like they may get a bit more rain than areas farther from the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, although the mountains sometimes generate their own showers. Because of the warm conditions, evapotranspiration should continue to be fairly high, which could put some stress on the plants in drier areas and may lead to the continuation of abnormally dry conditions and even moderate drought in some areas.
The tropics are quiet now and there is no activity expected for at least the next week, with fairly low chances through mid-month. However, with ocean temperatures running quite warm, any disturbance that forms could spin up relatively quickly. And we are entering the height of the Atlantic tropical season, so we are certain to see some storms in the next few weeks once this quiet period passes. However, we should have plenty of warning before any storms that form get close enough to affect us.