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NOAA’s latest global climate summary, released late last week, shows that this past September 2023 was the warmest on record for the earth as a whole. Nearly all of the globe was warmer than average, with most of it well above average and a substantial fraction the warmest ever. For the year to date, the…
Posted in: Climate summaries -
Climate prediction is a combination of looking at patterns that historically have affected our region in the past (analogies with previous events) and what computer models are saying about what we can expect this year based on large-scale weather patterns and how they are expected to evolve over time using mathematical formulas and current observations.…
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I don’t put any faith in winter forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac or the Farmers’ Almanac because over time scientists have shown that their forecasts are incorrect more often than they are right, although they are often so vague that it is hard to evaluate. But I know many farmers and others who consult…
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The latest 7-day QPF map shows that now that this week’s rain is moving out to the northeast, it should be dry until late in the week when the next system brings rain back to the region except for a few small spots in southern FL and in Virginia. All the rain you see on…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
If you have been paying attention to the news, you probably know that on Saturday during the day there will be an annular eclipse of the sun that will be visible across the lower 48 states, although in most places it will just be a partial eclipse. Since it is happening during the day, it…
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NOAA released the latest ENSO update this morning. It continues to show that the current El Nino is purring along as expected and has an 80% chance of continuing through spring. You can read more about it in the latest ENSO blog at October 2023 El Niño update: big cats | NOAA Climate.gov or look…
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The latest Drought Monitor, released this morning, shows that drought expanded in every state in the region but decreased slightly in Puerto Rico. Note that Alabama is completely covered by dry conditions, although it is not all officially classified as drought at this point. The cutoff for this map was before the rain that hit…
Posted in: Drought