NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their latest ENSO outlook for the coming months earlier today. It shows that El Nino is likely to emerge in the May through July period and strengthen throughout the rest of this year, lasting into next winter. There is a chance that it could become a very strong event, although it is important to recognize that stronger events do not always mean bigger impacts, but they do mean expected impacts are more likely to occur. It is also important to remember that ENSO forecasts are usually the least reliable in spring because of the spring predictability barrier, so things could change in a few months, although it is very unlikely that we would swing back to a La Nina any time for the foreseeable future. You can read the latest outlook at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
