El Nino and La Nina
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While we are still officially in ENSO neutral conditions, the signs are all there for the declaration of an El Niño within a few weeks. What does that mean for winter weather across the US? In general, when we have an El Niño, the subtropical jet stream, a river of high winds above the surface…
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While an El Niño has not yet been officially declared, the telltale water temperatures and wind patterns that are associated with an El Niño are all in place and I expect an official move from an El Niño Watch to an Advisory in the near future. The forecasts for this winter are less certain than…
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If you follow this blog, you know we’ve been expecting the onset of an El Niño sometime this fall. So far, it hasn’t quite happened. This article from NOAA gives an update on the current status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how likely the El Niño is. You can read it at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2018-enso-update-just-little-bit-history-repeating.…
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As you know if you’ve been following this blog, an El Niño appears to be forming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and is expected to develop over the next couple of months and last through the winter (gory details of the technical discussion can be found at https://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf). A number of forecasters are expecting that unlike…
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While we are still in ENSO-neutral conditions, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is indicating that there is a roughly 70 percent chance of an El Niño occurring by winter. The next update should be out next Thursday. Libbie Johnson of UF/IFAS Extension put together a nice reminder of what impacts farmers in the Southeast, especially northwest…
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A new research study published recently in Geophysical Research Letters indicates that in a warmer climate the swings back and forth between El Niño and La Niña may amplify, making year to year variability between the different phases more extreme. It may also make differences from one place to another larger in a given event.…
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The latest outlook for El Niño was released by NOAA today. It shows that even though the signals for the impending El Niño event have weakened slightly, the forecast for an event occurring by next winter is still likely, although the actual event may hold off until fall instead of in late summer as previously…