The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is the single most important predictor of seasonal climate in the Southeast, so we tend to watch it fairly closely to see if it can give us clues to future conditions. But researchers have found that a shift in ENSO patterns has reduced our…
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The latest ENSO outlook was released today by NOAA. The outlook says that there is a 55 percent chance that neutral ENSO conditions will last through summer. By late fall there is an almost even chance of neutral or La Nina conditions occurring, with a much smaller chance of an…
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Some recent articles have suggested that after being in ENSO-neutral conditions for quite a while now (albeit on the warm side of neutral), the eastern Pacific Ocean is headed towards a cooler pattern associated with the La Niña cold phase of the Southern Oscillation. If this does occur, we can…
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The latest weekly ENSO outlook was released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today and show that while the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are quite warm at the moment, neutral ENSO conditions are expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter (70% chance) and spring (65% chance). In…
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The latest outlook for El Niño was released this morning by NOAA. It shows that ENSO conditions are currently neutral and are expected to remain so for at least the first half of 2020. In the Southeast neutral winters generally have more swings in temperature between warm and cold episodes…
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Physics Today posted an interesting article late in November which discussed some new research on trends in the strength of El Niño over time. The research, by Dr. Kim Cobb of Georgia Tech and others, looked at chemical swings in the growth of coral and other indicators in the tropical…
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The best forecast clue for what winter is likely to be like in the Southeast and other parts of the US is whether El Niño or La Niña is present in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This year we have neutral conditions, which makes a winter prediction tougher. But NOAA’s Climate…
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