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If you follow this blog, you know we’ve been expecting the onset of an El Niño sometime this fall. So far, it hasn’t quite happened. This article from NOAA gives an update on the current status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how likely the El Niño is….
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As you know if you’ve been following this blog, an El Niño appears to be forming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and is expected to develop over the next couple of months and last through the winter (gory details of the technical discussion can be found at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf). A number of…
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While we are still in ENSO-neutral conditions, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is indicating that there is a roughly 70 percent chance of an El Niño occurring by winter. The next update should be out next Thursday. Libbie Johnson of UF/IFAS Extension put together a nice reminder of what impacts farmers…
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A new research study published recently in Geophysical Research Letters indicates that in a warmer climate the swings back and forth between El Niño and La Niña may amplify, making year to year variability between the different phases more extreme. It may also make differences from one place to another…
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The latest outlook for El Niño was released by NOAA today. It shows that even though the signals for the impending El Niño event have weakened slightly, the forecast for an event occurring by next winter is still likely, although the actual event may hold off until fall instead of…
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While El Niño has not officially started yet, and probably won’t be declared for a few months, the impacts of the expected El Niño are already showing up in predictions for this coming winter. The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center show that August is likely to be above…
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The latest round of ENSO forecasts now puts the chances of an El Niño occurring this winter at 70%, up from 64% last month. Generally once you get past spring, forecasts become more reliable and trustworthy, although they are certainly not perfect. The El Niño, if it occurs as expected, is…
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