Physics Today posted an interesting article late in November which discussed some new research on trends in the strength of El Niño over time. The research, by Dr. Kim Cobb of Georgia Tech and others, looked at chemical swings in the growth of coral and other indicators in the tropical…
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The best forecast clue for what winter is likely to be like in the Southeast and other parts of the US is whether El Niño or La Niña is present in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This year we have neutral conditions, which makes a winter prediction tougher. But NOAA’s Climate…
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According to a new study of 33 El Niños dating back to 1901 and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, climate change appears to be making the events stronger by shifting their hottest conditions west of the International Dateline over time. This can cause more extreme…
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A story in Yahoo News this week noted that a group of international scientists have recently announced a new method of predicting the occurrence of an El Niño in 2020, farther out that has ever been predicted before. Their method, using a computer model which looks at changing temperature patterns…
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The latest ENSO update from NOAA shows that neutral conditions are occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean right now and are expected to continue for the next few months. When there is no El Niño or La Niña occurring, it is harder to make a useful prediction about what is…
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This week NOAA declared that the weak El Niño of 2019 is now officially over based on objective measurements in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. We are now considered to be in neutral conditions. NOAA expects this to continue for the next few months, with lower chances of El Niño recurring…
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In a sharp change from last month’s El Niño outlook, the latest forecast from IRI now shows that they expect the current weak El Niño to end within the next couple of months. Last month’s forecast predicted it would last through most of the summer and perhaps into next fall….
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