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A new research study published recently in Geophysical Research Letters indicates that in a warmer climate the swings back and forth between El Niño and La Niña may amplify, making year to year variability between the different phases more extreme. It may also make differences from one place to another…
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The latest outlook for El Niño was released by NOAA today. It shows that even though the signals for the impending El Niño event have weakened slightly, the forecast for an event occurring by next winter is still likely, although the actual event may hold off until fall instead of…
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While El Niño has not officially started yet, and probably won’t be declared for a few months, the impacts of the expected El Niño are already showing up in predictions for this coming winter. The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center show that August is likely to be above…
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The latest round of ENSO forecasts now puts the chances of an El Niño occurring this winter at 70%, up from 64% last month. Generally once you get past spring, forecasts become more reliable and trustworthy, although they are certainly not perfect. The El Niño, if it occurs as expected, is…
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Today’s ENSO forecast from NOAA shows that we now have a 50% chance of an El Niño by late summer or early fall and a 65% chance of an El Niño next winter, so they have instituted an El Niño Watch. A watch means that while we are still in…
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According to the latest NOAA ENSO advisory, La Niña is now gone from the eastern Pacific Ocean and we have returned to neutral conditions. While we are technically in neutral conditions, La Niña-like patterns could continue for a few months as the ocean equilibrates. That may mean drier than normal…
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For those of you who are wondering whether or not our La Niña forecast for this winter has verified, here are the maps showing the temperature and precipitation anomaly patterns from October 1 to the present. Looks like a pretty classic La Niña to me, with warmer and drier conditions…
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