El Nino and La Nina
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The last two winters in the Southeast have been fairly mild, and extension specialists in Georgia have linked this to an onslaught of whiteflies during the last two growing seasons. If winter is mild, more whiteflies are able to survive the winter and add to crop woes in the next growing season. With a La…
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With a La Niña forecast to occur this winter, you might be wondering where the forecast for warmer and drier than normal conditions comes from. It is based on statistical patterns derived from previous episodes. NOAA’s Climate.gov has provided a nice set of maps which shows how historic La Niña events since 1950 have looked.…
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The latest ENSO outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows that the La Niña watch is continuing. Remember that La Niña conditions have to continue for several months before it becomes an official event. At this point there is no likelihood of El Niño this winter but still some chance of neutral conditions, although that…
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If you’ve been reading this blog regularly, you know that we are in a La Niña watch for this winter. Signs of La Niña are already present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but it generally takes a few months for an official declaration since they don’t want to jump the gun based on short-term variability. …
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In a post last week I noted that we are now in a La Niña watch, which means that conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean are reflecting a developing La Niña as characterized by colder than normal ocean temperatures off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador stretching almost halfway west across the Pacific Ocean. This…
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This morning NOAA issued a La Niña watch for the equatorial Pacific Ocean, based in part on strong winds towards the west which are increasing a pool of colder than normal water along the equator. This is a change from last month’s forecast, which indicated neutral conditions would be likely over the winter. The forecast…
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It’s headed towards the peak of the hurricane season, and it’s probably no surprise that the Atlantic tropical season is starting to heat up. This week is the anniversary of both Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (the 25th!) and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. (Note that Andrew was in an El Niño year, which is why an…