El Nino and La Nina
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According to the latest ENSO blog by NOAA, La Niña is now officially over and we have returned to neutral conditions as of May 13, 2021. NOAA forecasters estimate about a 67% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the summer. The ENSO forecast for the fall is less confident, with odds of a second-year…
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The latest ENSO advisory from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center this week show that while La Nina is barely holding on, it is expected to be gone in the next month, and neutral conditions have an 80 percent chance of occurring in the May through July period. While temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean are still…
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NOAA released their early April outlook for ENSO earlier this week. It shows that La Nina is barely hanging on and is expected to transition to neutral conditions over the next few months. What does this transition mean for the upcoming few months? While spring can be tough for predicting what will happen with ENSO…
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The latest ENSO outlook was released today. It shows that La Nina is still hanging on now, but that neutral conditions are expected to return later this spring and last through summer. The current forecast for next fall and winter is for La Nina to return in a “double dip”, which happens fairly frequently with…
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I’ve heard many complaints about this year’s winter forecast and how far off it was. Here is an excellent discussion of how seasonal forecasts are made and how they can be off. They show that for what we knew in November, a typical La Nina pattern was the most reasonable forecast. The things that changed…
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I saw an article on Yahoo News about La Nina making tornado season more severe this year. And if you look at the overall tornado season for the country, that seems to be true. But previous research has shown that the area of the most tornadoes just shifts, so that areas west of us get…
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We are halfway through February, so I thought I would take a look at the climate so far this month. The temperature departure map shows that the southern half of the region is above normal for the month except for a few areas where the rain was the heaviest. This is what we would expect…