Climate outlooks
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The State Climate Office of North Carolina has released their official forecast for the winter of 2015-16. You can read it on their blog at https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=166&h=5666e5c1. Here’s their summary of what to expect for North Carolina this winter. The more general aspects of the forecast are also applicable to the rest of the Southeast, although snowfall…
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As a cold front moves through the region today, a few spotty showers are being kicked off. The real story will be the chilly air that is ushered in behind it. Saturday night may see frost in the northern part of Georgia, but Sunday night into Monday morning will see much colder temperatures. Frost and…
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A continuation of our current weather pattern will bring a week of mostly dry conditions to the Southeast. The exception is the Florida peninsula, which will see about an inch of rain, mainly on Saturday and Sunday as a cold front moves through the area.
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If you are looking for simple fact sheets on how El Niño will affect your area or other regions around the country, including US territories, NOAA has collected a series of links to fact sheets at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/regional-el-nino-impacts-outlooks-assessments. There are also some links to other El Niño information at this site.
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The Climate Prediction Center posted its latest outlook maps yesterday for December and December through February. The maps are shown below. To interpret these maps, you need to know that the probabilities start out with an equal chance of below normal (33.3%) or lowest third of all values, above normal (33.3%) or upper third of…
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The State Climate Office of North Carolina published a blog article today describing winter weather in the years when climatological conditions, particularly with respect to El Niño, were similar to this year. Analog forecasting can give us clues to what to expect for this coming winter, although of course each winter has its own mix…
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Even though the El Niño is still growing towards a new record, climatologists and farmers are starting to look ahead to what the end of El Niño means for production next year. The El Niño is expected to wane starting in spring. In some years it moves to the opposite pattern, called La Niña, and…