We’ve had a lot of rain this year so far, and cooler temperatures in recent weeks have helped keep the water balance in good shape. But in the last week temperatures have soared, and with little rain, in the forecast, the chance of a dry spell or flash drought developing has increased. This week temperatures are expected to be consistently above normal during the day, and well under an inch of rain is expected in most parts of the Southeast. Soils are starting to dry rapidly and some agricultural impacts are being reported in the Crop Progress Bulletin. The tropics are not active right now, which is pretty typical for mid-July through mid-August even in an “active” year, so we can’t look for much relief there, either. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the objective drought tendency at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Flash_Drought/tendency_forecast.php. This product shows that there is an increased chance of drought development over a lot of Georgia and parts of Alabama and Virginia. Other drought prediction products, however, don’t make it seem likely that a persistent drought will develop in Georgia and Alabama, although there is a greater chance in Virginia. -Pam Knox, Extension Climatologist.