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Since my last blog post on the tropics, Tropical Depression 5 has organized and became Tropical Storm Ernesto yesterday. It has been moving at a very fast rate of speed and is now approaching Puerto Rico. It is expected to experience rainfall of 6-8 inches on the southeast coast as well as tropical storm force…
Posted in: Tropical weather -
The National Hurricane Center has just debuted a new updated hurricane cone with a sleeker look. While they are not yet using it in notifications about TS Ernesto, which is about to hit Puerto Rico, it should be appearing on their website soon. You can read more about the changes that are coming to the…
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NOAA released its latest global climate summary earlier this week. It shows that for the earth as a whole, this was the warmest July since records began in 1880. This makes 14 months in a row of record warmth. You can read more about it at https://www.noaa.gov/news/earth-just-had-its-warmest-july-on-record or see the numbers at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407.
Posted in: Climate summaries -
The latest tropical disturbance, for now named Investigation 98, has a 50% chance of developing into a named storm (Ernesto) in two days and 90% chance in seven days. The current model paths for the storm are quite consistent in showing that the storm is likely to turn north before it gets to the East…
Posted in: Tropical weather -
The latest ENSO forecast from NOAA, released earlier this week, shows that while near-normal ocean temperatures are currently present in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, they are expecting a La Nina to develop by the September through November period and last through the winter. Most of the forecasts currently show that they are expecting only a…
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The latest 7-day QPF map shows that rainfall across the Southeast should be lighter this week and next, although there will be periods of scattered rain. The driest part of next week will be today through Tuesday, with showers returning to northern GA and AL and the Southern Appalachians overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Those…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
Now that Debby is down to a tropical depression and headed out of our region soon, it is time to look ahead to see what is ahead. The National Hurricane Center has another area with a 50% chance of development in the next week somewhere in the western Atlantic. Since there is no center yet,…
Posted in: Tropical weather