Tropical weather
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Anyone who is worried about the potential for rapid development of tropical storms coming onshore in the Southeast should be very concerned about the current incredibly high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The map below shows that parts of the Gulf have temperatures above 90 F (32 C in this…
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CSU released its third forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, 6 July. In it,they increased the expected number of storms and now call for an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2023, although they noted that uncertainty with this outlook is larger than normal. From their press release: While we continue to…
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UPDATE: Link to video and slides now available at https://www.drought.gov/webinars/southeast-climate-monthly-webinar-june-27-2023. Join us for the Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar! These webinars provide the region with timely information on current and developing climate conditions such as drought, floods, and tropical storms, as well as climatic events like El Niño and La Niña. Speakers may also discuss the…
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You probably have not heard much about the two tropical systems in the Atlantic over the last few days. I took a look tonight and found that as of this afternoon Bret had disintegrated and was no longer considered a tropical depression. At the moment the remains are drifting south but there is some chance…
Posted in: Tropical weather -
The latest prediction for TS Bret is that it is expected to continue to move east and is no longer expected to reach hurricane status due to strong wind shear that is already tilting the circulation and weakening it. Most likely it will fizzle somewhere over the Caribbean but could bring some heavy rain and…
Posted in: Tropical weather -
Tonight the National Hurricane Center officially declared Bret as a tropical storm. The forecast cone shows that Bret is expected to continue west and gradually strengthen to a hurricane until it gets into the Caribbean. At that point, wind shear is likely to weaken Bret back to a tropical storm. The computer models have a…
Posted in: Tropical weather -
Today the National Hurricane Center posted a 7-day outlook that shows a wave that recently came off of Africa has a 70 percent chance of developing in the next seven days. This is quite a bit earlier than usual, but since water temperatures are much warmer than usual there is plenty of energy for a…
Posted in: Tropical weather