Tropical weather
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The latest ENSO forecast shows that neutral conditions are much more likely than either La Niña or El Niño conditions for the next few months. While it’s tough to predict this earlier in the year, usually by August we have a pretty good sense of where the ENSO system will go for the next few…
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As of 11 pm, Tropical Storm Franklin has formed and is headed for the Yucutan peninsula of Mexico. It may become a hurricane before it makes landfall. No impacts are expected for the Southeast. You can read more at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov. I also use https://www.spaghettimodels.com for additional geeky tropical weather information.
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Now that we are entering the peak Atlantic hurricane season, emergency managers and others who have to plan for the impacts of a tropical system need every tool they can get to help assess threats and identify areas of concern before the storm is upon them. NOAA’s Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards tool can help managers…
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The final Colorado State University hurricane forecast for this year’s Atlantic season was issued this week. It shows a continuation of expected above average numbers, really not much change from their earlier season forecast. Warm water in the Atlantic has passed the 80 F threshold needed for storms to form in many parts of the…
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The Washington Post has an interesting and terrifying analysis of what is likely to happen to Tampa Bay when a major hurricane like Katrina strikes that city. Estimates of damage top $175 billion, and according to the story, a World Bank study called Tampa Bay one of the most at-risk areas on the globe. Yet…
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While the Atlantic has been relatively inactive as far as tropical storms go this year (although they are still ahead of normal in named storms), the Pacific Ocean has been hopping. Weather Underground posted a story describing the eight storms that occurred at the same time across the Northern Pacific Ocean at https://www.wunderground.com/news/eight-tropical-cyclones-pacific-july2017. You can…
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Since it is now Atlantic tropical season, you might enjoy trying out this game from the National Hurricane Center on how to control hurricane paths by careful placement of high and low pressure centers. While it’s designed for teachers and kids, even older “kids” like us can learn how forecasting of hurricane paths is not…