El Nino and La Nina
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According to NOAA’s latest ENSO post, we are on the verge of going back into a La Nina, with a 70-80 percent chance of occurrence over the winter. All of the conditions are ripe for us to cross the magic threshold of ocean temperatures more than 1/2 degree C below the long-term average. You might…
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As you know if you read this blog, the chance of going back into a La Nina later this year from our present neutral conditions is very high. Last year was also a La Nina winter, and while we expected it to be warmer than normal based on long-term statistics, it was the one out…
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In this blog I tend to focus on the relationship between the phase of ENSO (El Nino or La Nina or neutral) and what climate conditions are likely to happen here in the Southeast as well as how those conditions will affect our crops. But ENSO actually affects weather across the whole globe, so if…
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We are in neutral conditions now, but this week NOAA forecasters issued a La Niña Watch, indicating that they think La Niña will likely return in the September through November period and last through next winter. Although El Niños seldom last for more than one winter, it is not at all unusual for La Nina…
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The latest ENSO outlook issued by IRI at Columbia University today shows that the chance of returning to a La Nina in fall after a summer of neutral conditions has increased. Their official probabilistic forecast shows that La Nina is likely to return by the October through December period. You can read their report at…
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You might remember that the forecast for ENSO for this year was for La Nina to go away during the summer but potentially return in the fall. This is called double-dipping, since we have two years in a row with a La Nina. It happens from time to time with La Nina but almost never…
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According to the latest ENSO blog by NOAA, La Niña is now officially over and we have returned to neutral conditions as of May 13, 2021. NOAA forecasters estimate about a 67% chance that neutral conditions will continue through the summer. The ENSO forecast for the fall is less confident, with odds of a second-year…