Climate outlooks
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If you follow this blog, you know we’ve been expecting the onset of an El Niño sometime this fall. So far, it hasn’t quite happened. This article from NOAA gives an update on the current status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how likely the El Niño is. You can read it at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2018-enso-update-just-little-bit-history-repeating.…
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UPDATE: As of Friday November 9, it now looks like most of Florida and the coastal plains of Georgia, South and North Carolina will probably be spared a frost during this cold air outbreak, although scattered areas could still see something. Follow your local National Weather Service forecast for the latest information. I’ve been watching…
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The latest monthly and 3-month outlooks for the US show that in November the forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center leans toward warmer and wetter conditions than normal, particularly in the coastal areas of the Southeast. For the November through January period, the influence of the developing El Niño is seen, with equal chances of…
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The latest 7 day QPF map shows that Florida is expected to see scant rain in the next week. The coastal plains of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas are expected to see half an inch or less, so abnormally dry conditions should continue there. Coastal waters and the higher elevations parts of the Southeast will…
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The next three days should be dry for nearly all of the Southeast, with rain chances ramping up after that. There should be enough rain to put a dent in the dry areas of Alabama, but with less than an inch expected in most of Georgia, the moderate drought currently in place is not expected…
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As you know if you’ve been following this blog, an El Niño appears to be forming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and is expected to develop over the next couple of months and last through the winter (gory details of the technical discussion can be found at https://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf). A number of forecasters are expecting that unlike…
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The latest 7-day QPF forecast shows that while we can expect a little bit of rain today as a cold front moves through the region, after that it should be mostly dry. Rain chances will return on Thursday or Friday when up to an inch is possible in southern Alabama and Georgia and into Florida…
Posted in: Climate outlooks