The latest round of ENSO forecasts now puts the chances of an El Niño occurring this winter at 70%, up from 64% last month. Generally once you get past spring, forecasts become more reliable and trustworthy, although they are certainly not perfect. The El Niño, if it occurs as expected, is likely to bring cooler, cloudier and wetter weather to much of the Southeast next winter when it is at its peak. This is due to the presence of the subtropical jet across Florida and into southern Alabama and Georgia, which pushes low pressure centers and their associated wet weather across the region. The El Niño is also expected to reduce the development of tropical storms in the Atlantic later in the season as it becomes more established. You can read more at AgWeb here.