Pam Knox
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The National Interagency Fire Center has issued their May outlook for wildfire possibilities across the United States this week. The report shows that the Southeast has a lower than normal chance for wildfires this year due to the current wet conditions coupled with the presence of the El Nino, which is expected to last for…
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The latest 7-day QPF shows that a good portion of the Southeast will have dry conditions for another week. This should help farmers finish up their spring planting and take care of other field work. South Florida is the biggest exception, with a higher chance of rain than the rest of the region. The week…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
If you are a history buff, you will enjoy reading about the first official weather forecast, made by Admiral Robert FitzRoy, a well-known mariner who also happened to be the captain of the HMS Beagle, Charles Darwin’s ship of discovery. The key to FitzRoy’s ability to forecast was the development of the telegraph, which allowed…
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The State Climate Office of North Carolina put out another blog posting in their series on extremes in the state. In this edition, they look at spring freezes and the damage that can be done by a late frost to crops in the region. In the article several devastating frosts of the past are described,…
Posted in: Climate and Ag in the news -
If you have looked at the Keeling curve for carbon dioxide concentration that I have shown in past blog postings, you may be wondering why there is a yearly cycle in the concentration of carbon dioxide. The graph below shows the last two years of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as measured on Mauna Loa…
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The Atlantic tropical storm season officially starts on June 1. However, this year the unofficial season may start a little earlier than usual if model predictions hold true. The models show the potential for an extratropical storm to form on an old frontal boundary over the Bahamas which could drift north to North Carolina over…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
The “Spring Predictability Barrier” is well known to climatologists as the difficulty we have in predicting whether an El Nino will occur in the coming months in springtime compared to other times of the year. This is due to the seasonality of El Nino, which is usually strongest around Christmas (hence the name “El Nino”,…