Pam Knox
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NOAA released their latest 3-month predictions for November through January today. The maps show a clear El Nino signal in precipitation with wet conditions expected across southern AL and GA and northern FL, as expected from previous strong El Nino events. Temperature predictions show warmer than normal conditions across the northern part of the US…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
If you watch the weather forecasts carefully, either for regular weather or for tropical storms, you probably already know that meteorologists use multiple models to help make their predictions of what the weather is likely to be and how storm systems will move across an area. Forbes has a great description of why forecasters use…
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The latest Drought Monitor, released today, shows the expansion of drought across most of the region, especially in northern and western parts of the states. Florida was the only state that saw an improvement in dry conditions, and Puerto Rico showed no change from last week. With relatively light rainfall amounts expected this week, it…
Posted in: Drought -
You might expect that in an El Nino winter, the chance of freezing nights would go up, since El Nino winters are generally cooler than average. I decided to test that by looking at the number of nights that the minimum temperature got below 32 F and seeing if years with El Nino had more…
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NOAA’s latest global climate summary, released late last week, shows that this past September 2023 was the warmest on record for the earth as a whole. Nearly all of the globe was warmer than average, with most of it well above average and a substantial fraction the warmest ever. For the year to date, the…
Posted in: Climate summaries -
Climate prediction is a combination of looking at patterns that historically have affected our region in the past (analogies with previous events) and what computer models are saying about what we can expect this year based on large-scale weather patterns and how they are expected to evolve over time using mathematical formulas and current observations.…
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I don’t put any faith in winter forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac or the Farmers’ Almanac because over time scientists have shown that their forecasts are incorrect more often than they are right, although they are often so vague that it is hard to evaluate. But I know many farmers and others who consult…