The latest ENSO discussion from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows a continuation of the trend we’ve seen in the last few months from La Nina conditions to neutral conditions. The latest outlook shows that La Nina is likely to end within the next month or two, swinging into neutral conditions for most of the spring and early summer before switching over to an El Nino by late summer. This would be the first time in several years that we have been in El Nino. Keep in mind that the “spring predictability barrier” makes predictions of the ENSO state in summer and fall to be less reliable than at other times of year, but we should have stronger confidence in the forecast for fall and winter by later in the summer. If we do enter an El Nino, tropical activity in the Atlantic is likely to be lower than in the previous few years, although you can get strong hurricanes even in El Nino years. You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
