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It’s headed towards the peak of the hurricane season, and it’s probably no surprise that the Atlantic tropical season is starting to heat up. This week is the anniversary of both Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (the 25th!) and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. (Note that Andrew was in an El Niño…
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Daniel Brouillette of the Florida Climate Center posted a report describing Tropical Storm Emily, which made landfall near Tampa Bay on July 31, 2017. It caused a small storm surge, gusty winds and heavy rains. You can read the details at http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/images/docs/TS_Emily_Fla_summary_2017.pdf.
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The latest ENSO forecast shows that neutral conditions are much more likely than either La Niña or El Niño conditions for the next few months. While it’s tough to predict this earlier in the year, usually by August we have a pretty good sense of where the ENSO system will…
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As of 11 pm, Tropical Storm Franklin has formed and is headed for the Yucutan peninsula of Mexico. It may become a hurricane before it makes landfall. No impacts are expected for the Southeast. You can read more at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov. I also use http://www.spaghettimodels.com for additional geeky tropical weather information.
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Now that we are entering the peak Atlantic hurricane season, emergency managers and others who have to plan for the impacts of a tropical system need every tool they can get to help assess threats and identify areas of concern before the storm is upon them. NOAA’s Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion…
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The final Colorado State University hurricane forecast for this year’s Atlantic season was issued this week. It shows a continuation of expected above average numbers, really not much change from their earlier season forecast. Warm water in the Atlantic has passed the 80 F threshold needed for storms to form…
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The Washington Post has an interesting and terrifying analysis of what is likely to happen to Tampa Bay when a major hurricane like Katrina strikes that city. Estimates of damage top $175 billion, and according to the story, a World Bank study called Tampa Bay one of the most at-risk…
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