Tropical weather
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As expected, the movement of TS Erika over Hispaniola along with vertical wind shear has caused Erika to weaken. Hurricane forecasters now expect that it may drop below tropical storm levels and become a tropical depression tomorrow. The circulation has tracked more to the west than the models were predicting, which has caused some changes in…
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The last 30 days have been very wet in parts of Florida, although the southern tip is quite dry and is in extreme drought. The map below from https://water.weather.gov/precip shows that some areas of western Florida north and south of Tampa have an excess of 8 inches in just the last month. If the path…
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Earlier today I wrote about the difficulty that hurricane forecasters were having in making a good forecast on where Erika is going. Here’s a little more information to show you just how tough it can be. Hurricane forecasters, like weather forecasters and climate modelers, use a variety of computer models to simulate what the future…
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The 11 AM forecast for Erika is now available and shows a very slight shift to the west on the projected path, although the change is not large. In their discussion the forecasters note that the storm is very disorganized, which makes it much harder to make an accurate prediction of where it is ultimately…
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Earlier today I sent out a note to all UGA Extension agents about the possibility of impacts from Tropical Storm Erika early next week. At the time of the email, Florida and southern Georgia as well as the eastern Carolinas were in the forecast cone for a direct pass by TS Erika starting on Sunday…
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As meteorologists watch the evolution of Tropical Storm Erika today, it is becoming more clear that Florida is going to be impacted by the storm. What happens after that is less clear, but if you live in Florida, southern Georgia, or the eastern Carolinas you should be watching the outlooks closely. It now appears highly…
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The National Hurricane Center issued its last statement on the remains of what was once Hurricane Danny this morning. Danny hit an area of cooler ocean temperatures and strong wind shear which shut down convection in the storm, leaving just a remnant tropical wave which is not expected to redevelop, although it could bring some…