El Nino and La Nina
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The latest ENSO update, released late last week, shows that while La Nina is still present in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a transition to neutral conditions is likely in early 2023, with equal chances for La Nina and neutral conditions by January through March and a 73% chance of neutral conditions by February through April.…
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Earlier this month, Weather Underground offered a good look at the two previous times that La Nina occurred three years in a row and how it affected climate. As their analysis shows, temperature was less similar than precipitation, so if this holds, you are more likely to see a dry winter than a warm one.…
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The latest ENSO advisory, released on October 13 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, shows that La Nina continues to be firmly in place. It is likely to continue through the winter and into spring before ENSO returns to neutral conditions. You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
Posted in: El Nino and La Nina -
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their latest ENSO outlook today. It shows that there is a 91% chance that the current La Nina will last through fall, and a 54% chance that it will last through March 2023. Typically, a La Nina winter in the Southeast means an increased likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures…
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The latest El Nino discussion was released today. It shows that there is a strong likelihood that La Nina will continue through 2022, with a return to neutral conditions likely by spring. You can read more at their summary page. That means that even though the tropics are quiet now, we expect them to ramp…
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Here is a very detailed discussion of the current status of La Nina, what we expect in the next few months, and how it will affect the coming winter of 2022-2023 in the United States and Europe, from Severe Weather Europe. No big surprises, but a more deep dive into all of the nuances of…
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The latest ENSO forecast shows that the current La Nina is likely to continue to dominate the global weather through the end of the year. By then, neutral conditions are expected to take over and last for at least the next few months. Keep in mind that forecasts this time of year are not highly…
Posted in: El Nino and La Nina