El Nino and La Nina
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It’s headed towards the peak of the hurricane season, and it’s probably no surprise that the Atlantic tropical season is starting to heat up. This week is the anniversary of both Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (the 25th!) and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. (Note that Andrew was in an El Niño year, which is why an…
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According to an article recently published in Nature magazine, the last very large El Nino created a surge in carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere which added to amounts already being added by manmade pollution. According to the article, “Measurements taken by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite, which measures the level of carbon dioxide…
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The latest ENSO forecast shows that neutral conditions are much more likely than either La Niña or El Niño conditions for the next few months. While it’s tough to predict this earlier in the year, usually by August we have a pretty good sense of where the ENSO system will go for the next few…
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As part of their series of graphs of global average temperatures, NOAA produces this one below which shows the temperature anomalies by ENSO phase. As expected the graph shows that El Niño year (in red) tend to be the warmest because of the large expanse of above-normal sea surface temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean…
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This year’s count of four named systems is about a month ahead of the normal number. What is even more interesting is that three of the four storms developed in the main Atlantic equatorial corridor and not in the Gulf of Mexico or other points closer to the US, which is not usual. Weather Underground…
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The latest ENSO forecast from NOAA indicates that the development of an El Niño later this year is increasingly unlikely, although it is not zero. A La Nina is very unlikely to form. The latest IRI forecast graph shows that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the next few months based on an ensemble…
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Now that we are past the spring predictability barrier, I am starting to get calls asking about the likelihood of El Niño returning to the eastern Pacific Ocean over the next few months. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington posted his take on it in his blog this week at https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/06/el-nino-next-winter.html. According to Cliff, there…
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