El Nino and La Nina
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According to a new study of 33 El Niños dating back to 1901 and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, climate change appears to be making the events stronger by shifting their hottest conditions west of the International Dateline over time. This can cause more extreme weather by shifting the regional…
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A story in Yahoo News this week noted that a group of international scientists have recently announced a new method of predicting the occurrence of an El Niño in 2020, farther out that has ever been predicted before. Their method, using a computer model which looks at changing temperature patterns over the Pacific Ocean, gives…
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The latest ENSO update from NOAA shows that neutral conditions are occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean right now and are expected to continue for the next few months. When there is no El Niño or La Niña occurring, it is harder to make a useful prediction about what is likely to happen in the…
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This week NOAA declared that the weak El Niño of 2019 is now officially over based on objective measurements in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. We are now considered to be in neutral conditions. NOAA expects this to continue for the next few months, with lower chances of El Niño recurring and even lower chances that…
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In a sharp change from last month’s El Niño outlook, the latest forecast from IRI now shows that they expect the current weak El Niño to end within the next couple of months. Last month’s forecast predicted it would last through most of the summer and perhaps into next fall. If this holds true, it…
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NOAA’s latest discussion on the status of El Niño is now available at their El Niño blog at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2019-enso-blog-update-concentrate-and-ask-again. You can read it to get more information on what is affecting the current status and where we expect it to go from here.
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The latest edition of the El Niño outlook was published this week. It shows that El Niño is well entrenched in the central Pacific, with cooler conditions in the eastern Pacific due a temporary Kelvin wave. Virtually every statistical and dynamical model predicts that this El Niño will continue for the next few months, potentially…