Climate outlooks
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Climate prediction is a combination of looking at patterns that historically have affected our region in the past (analogies with previous events) and what computer models are saying about what we can expect this year based on large-scale weather patterns and how they are expected to evolve over time using mathematical formulas and current observations.…
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I don’t put any faith in winter forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac or the Farmers’ Almanac because over time scientists have shown that their forecasts are incorrect more often than they are right, although they are often so vague that it is hard to evaluate. But I know many farmers and others who consult…
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The latest 7-day QPF map shows that now that this week’s rain is moving out to the northeast, it should be dry until late in the week when the next system brings rain back to the region except for a few small spots in southern FL and in Virginia. All the rain you see on…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
NOAA released the latest ENSO update this morning. It continues to show that the current El Nino is purring along as expected and has an 80% chance of continuing through spring. You can read more about it in the latest ENSO blog at October 2023 El Niño update: big cats | NOAA Climate.gov or look…
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After almost no rain at my house for most of the last month, I got a measly 0.03 inches in the gauge this morning. But good news! Those of us who have been lacking in moisture for the last few weeks will be happy to hear that rain has reappeared in the forecast for all…
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On Friday, October 6, the first big cold front of fall will push through a lot of the Southeast, bringing much cooler and drier conditions to the region. It will be a fairly dry front, though, so not much relief from the dry conditions we have been experiencing the past few weeks. Since we are…
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The latest 7-day QPF map shows that a large part of the Southeast will see only light showers this week, with the usual exception of Florida, as high pressure continues to dominate the area. Rain could occur over the Florida Peninsula over the next few days and light showers could occur in Alabama, N GA,…
Posted in: Climate outlooks