Climate outlooks
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I’ve been getting phone calls and emails asking when we can expect the El Nino rains to start to reduce the drought that has been growing across a lot of the Southeast in the past few weeks. Unfortunately, the Climate Prediction Center and the long-range models do not give much hope of needed relief in…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
This week we are expecting a big change in the prevailing weather pattern as a strong cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will not have a lot of precipitation with it but will bring sharply colder and drier air to a lot of the region…
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The latest 7-day QPF shows that a lot of the region will see only a little rain this week. Most of what is expected will fall mid-week with the passage of a strong cold front starting on Monday. The heaviest rain from the front will be in Virginia and North Carolina, with very little rain…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
High pressure will dominate the week, leaving all of the Southeast high and dry for the next seven days. Temperatures should be quite moderate and no chance of frost is seen in the long-range forecasts until the first week of November, although any forecast over a week out should be taken with some caution. The…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
NOAA released their latest 3-month predictions for November through January today. The maps show a clear El Nino signal in precipitation with wet conditions expected across southern AL and GA and northern FL, as expected from previous strong El Nino events. Temperature predictions show warmer than normal conditions across the northern part of the US…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
Climate prediction is a combination of looking at patterns that historically have affected our region in the past (analogies with previous events) and what computer models are saying about what we can expect this year based on large-scale weather patterns and how they are expected to evolve over time using mathematical formulas and current observations.…
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I don’t put any faith in winter forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac or the Farmers’ Almanac because over time scientists have shown that their forecasts are incorrect more often than they are right, although they are often so vague that it is hard to evaluate. But I know many farmers and others who consult…