Climate and Ag in the news
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The latest forecasts show that Erika is not likely to return from the dead and become a tropical storm again, but the moisture is still there and will bring lots of rain to Florida and southeastern Georgia. The remains are now known as investigation 90L and the model runs for where it goes are shown…
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The National Hurricane Center reported this morning that Erika no longer has a closed low pressure center and is in the process of dissipating. The combination of wind shear and the mountains of Hispaniola knocked the socks off the already weak circulation. But the remnants of Erika will continue to move along the projected path…
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As expected, the movement of TS Erika over Hispaniola along with vertical wind shear has caused Erika to weaken. Hurricane forecasters now expect that it may drop below tropical storm levels and become a tropical depression tomorrow. The circulation has tracked more to the west than the models were predicting, which has caused some changes in…
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Rome Ethredge posted some notes on what to expect this winter from a recent meeting of Southeast Climate Consortium members. You can read the original post and see some pictures from the meeting at https://seminolecropnews.wordpress.com/2015/08/27/wet-winter-predicted/. Here are his take-away points from the meeting, based on the highly probable occurrence of a strong El Nino. Keep in mind…
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Earlier today I wrote about the difficulty that hurricane forecasters were having in making a good forecast on where Erika is going. Here’s a little more information to show you just how tough it can be. Hurricane forecasters, like weather forecasters and climate modelers, use a variety of computer models to simulate what the future…
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Today marks the anniversary of the Indonesian volcano, Krakatoa, which erupted catastrophically on August 27, 1883. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a history of the event at https://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/history/1883.shtml. It is considered to be one of the most explosive eruptions in history and it is said that the shock waves in the atmosphere went around the…
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The 11 AM forecast for Erika is now available and shows a very slight shift to the west on the projected path, although the change is not large. In their discussion the forecasters note that the storm is very disorganized, which makes it much harder to make an accurate prediction of where it is ultimately…