Based on the outlooks for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center, it looks like the weather may be changing early in December to something warmer and wetter. The maps for the 6-10 day outlook (November 28-Dec 2) show an increased chance of cooler and drier conditions than normal, while the maps for the 8-14 day outlook (November 30-Dec 6) show warmer and wetter conditions are most likely to occur then. You can look at updated maps at www.cpc.noaa.gov whenever you like.
6-10 day maps
So, it looks like the forecast is finally pointing toward the cooler and wetter conditions we might typically expect during El Nino winters?
We’ve been hovering near the threshold for El Nino for a while. I think the lack of Atlantic hurricanes and the large number of storms in the Eastern Pacific is just a sign of these conditions. I noticed that while NOAA has put us at 55 percent chance, the Australians have pushed it up to 70 percent. So the forecast is definitely reflecting conditions we might expect in a weak El Nino.