Tropical weather
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Recent hurricanes like Michael and Idalia have caused tremendous hardship to timber producers, who lost not only their trees but in some cases also their processing plants, leaving them with limited markets even if they have trees to sell. Planting new trees won’t help older farmers since they typically take about 25 years before they…
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Today the National Hurricane Center posted a 5-day map of the Atlantic showing a center of possible activity in the central Atlantic with a 10% chance of development. Do I think it will develop into a tropical storm? No, but it is interesting and perhaps concerning that we are already seeing signs of activity so…
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One of the factors used in predicting the number of tropical storms and hurricanes we expect in the Atlantic Ocean is the temperature of the ocean, since tropical activity generally only starts when the sea surface is at least 80 F. That is the temperature needed to help tropical waves develop the vertical circulation needed…
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The first official hurricane forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was released today by researchers at Colorado State University. The forecast shows that they expect 23 named storms this season due to a combination of La Nina and very warm ocean temperatures. You can read the details of how they produce the forecast at…
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We are continuing to watch the El Nino begin to fade away in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, although there is still plenty of warm water there. Last year, while El Nino was growing, the strong jet kept most of the tropical storm development out over the very warm Atlantic Ocean, although we still experienced some…
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After every extreme weather event, scientists study the effects of the event to see what they can learn from the consequences of that event. One of the lessons learned after Hurricane Idalia shows how “living shoreline” projects provide more protection to ocean fronts than other methods of protection from high waves and storm surge. Living…
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My tropical meteorology scientist colleagues have been watching the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean lately and have been stunned at how warm they are compared to normal. In some areas, the temperatures are at more than 4 standard deviations away from average conditions, which is just mind-blowing in how unusual this is. That…