The latest 7-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that while Helene has dissipated, there are two new named storms in the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce. Both of them are moving away from the US and will not affect us. There is also an area with a 70% chance of development in the central Atlantic–if a storm develops there, it is expected to move west and then northwest, although at this point it does not look like it will affect land. The biggest area of concern for us is the center of potential development in the Western Caribbean, which has a 50% chance of developing a new tropical depression in the next week. This is near where Helene developed, and the new depression is also expected to track north into the Gulf. At this point when there is not even a center of activity, the models are once again showing a spread of landfalls ranging from Texas to the Florida Peninsula. This time the initial runs indicate that this would be a tropical storm or low-end hurricane, but it is too early to say much of anything with certainty. Once again we watch and wait and hope it will not affect us in the Southeast so soon after the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene. The model timing shows something developing later in the week and some models show a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast by around October 5-6, but we will know more over time.
