During the day today, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 became Tropical Storm Helene. It is continuing to strengthen and should be a hurricane soon. It is expected to continue to strengthen over the next day and become a major hurricane before making landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast sometime on Thursday. The models have been quite consistent over time with the path, but now that the center of the storm is becoming well-established, there may be some additional changes to the forecast cone.
As of 11 pm EDT, Helene had a wind speed of 60 mph and was heading WNW at 10 mph. The early part of the path shows a slight westward curve that will bring the center of the storm near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before heading north into the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast cone continues to be very similar to earlier versions but a little to the west of previous forecasts and the 11 pm one is also showing that after Helene makes landfall as a major hurricane, it will weaken more rapidly than previous forecasts. Since some additional adjustments are likely over the next two days, it would be wise to plan for a stronger storm crossing over Georgia than what is currently showing just as a precaution.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be large and rain will start in North Georgia as a Precursor Rain Event (PRE), which sometimes forms far ahead of a hurricane, on Wednesday. Heavy rain is expected to start falling in NW Georgia by Wednesday afternoon and several inches could fall before a lull occurs prior to the arrival of Helene. This rain is likely to cause some flash flooding, so if you need to travel through that part of the region on Wednesday, please be cautious and “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” if you see water covering the road. The PRE should last through Wednesday evening before weakening. Rainfall from the main center of Helene is likely to start on Thursday from south to north, although sometimes lines of convection form out ahead of the main rain shield. There could be a few weak tornadoes embedded in the rain bands to the east of the path as the storm moves north. Rain will continue through Thursday afternoon and overnight and will end later on Friday from south to north as the storm center moves north. Total rain amounts could be up to 8 inches in the PRE area as well as along and to the right of Helene and even higher in the Southern Appalachians where uplift from the topography will enhance rainfall even more.
Winds from the storm are expected to be severe. It is likely that Helene will be at hurricane force through Tallahassee and Valdosta before weakening. Wind gusts across the region could be in the 60-mph range all the way to Atlanta, with stronger gusts near the FL-GA border and near or east of the storm center. Helene is already a very large storm and will get larger, so even areas quite far away from the center of circulation will feel the effects of the extreme winds. The winds, combined with the heavy rain, will likely lead to massive losses of power due to falling trees and power lines. Those outages could last for several days because it will take a long time for power crews to take care of all the breaks in the lines. The wind and rain will also cause significant losses to the cotton and peanut crops and could also uproot new pecan orchards planted since Hurricane Michael back in 2018. Pine trees could be snapped or toppled over in the wind as well, causing problems in commercial forests and family woodlots.
By Wednesday morning, Helene is likely to be a hurricane and it will continue to pull together as it moves over the record-setting warm Gulf water. Weather conditions will get worse as the day goes on, so preparations for the storm should be hurried to completion, especially if you are in Florida and South Georgia and SE Alabama. Once the storm gets close, it will not be safe to move around outside due to flying debris and the potential for broken power lines on the ground as well as the flooding rains.
If you are curious about what the weather will be like at your location, you can access NWS hourly forecasts using the information at https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/03/where-to-get-hourly-weather-forecast-information/. They will of course be subject to change over time as more data comes in and the models are updated, but it will give you an idea of the timing of wind and rain at your location. Follow the National Hurricane Center outlooks for storm information and your local NWS office for local conditions. If you are along the Gulf Coast or in a low-lying area prone to flooding, be prepared to evacuate to higher ground if officials request it.
