Over the last 24 hours, the convection in the western Caribbean has strengthened, mostly on the east side of the area of convection, and winds have increased, but no closed low has been found yet so it continues as Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 as of 11 pm on Monday. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Helene on Tuesday, a hurricane on Wednesday, and a major hurricane as it approaches the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday due to its passage over record-setting warm Gulf water. The models show a surprising amount of consensus on the track of the storm at the moment, although there is still some spread in the path where Helene could go.
As of 11 pm on Monday, the forecast cone shows that center of Helene could make landfall anywhere from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampa, but the most likely spot is east of Apalachicola. It is expected to grow in size and accelerate to the north on Wednesday and Thursday as it makes landfall and will move quickly to the north and then the northwest as it interacts with a low over the Ozarks. The rapid forward speed of the storm and the large size mean that impacts of Helene will be more widespread and more severe than a storm that was smaller or slower. Wind gusts could be significant all the way up to Atlanta, far from the coast. Rainfall amounts of up to 8 inches may occur in some spots but the exact location of the heaviest rain depends on exactly where the storm moves. The combination of heavy rain and strong winds will likely result in the toppling of many trees. Widespread power outages could last for days in isolated locations. It will also cause a lot of damage to cotton and other crops as the rain is likely to affect fiber quality in the open cotton bolls and the wind blows bolls off the plants.
Everyone in Georgia, the eastern half of Alabama, and the western half of South Carolina should be prepared for significant impacts from Helene and should be clearing loose items from their lawns, stockpiling water for drinking and flushing (it does not need to be bottled water, just clean tap water), filling up gas tanks, purchasing non-perishable food, preparing evacuation plans if you are near the coast, and testing generators to make sure you know how they work. Remember, impacts from the storm can and will occur outside of the forecast cone, especially on the east side. Farmers should also document the pre-storm quality of their crops in case it is needed for insurance claims later. Outdoor work should be completed by Wednesday evening, although there could be rain even before the storm gets close to land. Impacts of the storm should end by Friday night as the storm moves north out of the Southeast and dissipates over land.
The forecasts will continue to evolve over time, so you need to keep watching for updated forecast information to make sure you are keeping up with the developing storm. You can get the local weather conditions and forecasts from your local National Weather Service office to determine timing of rain and strong winds as well as the amounts expected.
