El Nino and La Nina
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The latest ENSO forecast from NOAA indicates that the development of an El Niño later this year is increasingly unlikely, although it is not zero. A La Nina is very unlikely to form. The latest IRI forecast graph shows that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the next few months based on an ensemble…
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Now that we are past the spring predictability barrier, I am starting to get calls asking about the likelihood of El Niño returning to the eastern Pacific Ocean over the next few months. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington posted his take on it in his blog this week at https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/06/el-nino-next-winter.html. According to Cliff, there…
Posted in: El Nino and La Nina -
As I pointed out in one of yesterday’s posts, this year is a very active one for tornadoes, and Georgia is leading the pack of all the states in the number that have been experienced so far. Two questions might come to mind–does this mean we will set a new record in the number of…
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Do any of you remember that old advertisement for women’s hair color which said “Does she or doesn’t she? Only her hairdresser knows for sure”? Well, at the moment it’s similar to our question about whether or not El Niño will reappear in the next few months. NOAA’s latest prediction has shown just a slight…
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“Will he or won’t he?” A question I’ve been getting a lot lately is whether or not we are headed into our next El Niño. Fortunately for us in the Southeast, if we have either an El Niño or the opposite La Niña, statistically we have some idea of what climate conditions to expect during…
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NOAA’s latest update on the forecast for El Niño indicates that there are still mixed signals about the likelihood of an El Niño developing later this year. One observation in favor of the development is the current strong warming right off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, which is causing problems with tremendous flooding in…
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One of the signs that an El Niño may be brewing in the eastern Pacific Ocean is a burst of unusually warm water near the coast that is contributing to heavy flooding in Peru. According to Yahoo News, at least 62 people have died and more than 70,000 have become homeless as Peru’s rainy season…