Climate outlooks

  • The latest round of ENSO forecasts now puts the chances of an El Niño occurring this winter at 70%, up from 64% last month. Generally once you get past spring, forecasts become more reliable and trustworthy, although they are certainly not perfect. The El Niño, if it occurs as expected, is likely to bring cooler, cloudier…

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  • The latest 7 day QPF map shows that rain is expected over all of the Southeast except for just some light rain in Virginia. The heaviest amounts are located off the coast where Tropical Depression Three (expected to become TS Chris sometime today) is meandering around. The area around the Gulf of Mexico will also…

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  • The latest 30-day outlook for July 2018 shows that for most of the Southeast, conditions are likely to continue to be warmer and wetter than normal, according to the latest posting from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The only area where equal changes of below, near and above normal precipitation are noted is the region that…

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  • The latest hurricane forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado State University was released this week. In this latest forecast they have reduced their expected number of storms due to the cold temperatures in the source area in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean and the developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Their…

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  • The latest 7 day QPF map shows that all of the region will get rain this week. The lightest amounts will be in North Carolina and Virginia, with less than half an inch expected. The heaviest amounts will be along the Gulf Coast and along the Florida peninsula, with several inches expected. If you look…

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  • Is it ever going to stop raining? I’ve been getting this question a lot in the last couple of weeks, as farmers and everyone else get inundated by repeated rounds of thunderstorms that develop over the afternoon hours and grow in the late afternoon heat. I’ve gotten almost three inches of rain in the last…

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  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their latest round of climate predictions late last week. You can always find them at https://www.cpc.noaa.gov too.  The outlooks show that for July, there are equal chances of near, below and above normal precipitation across the Southeast, with most of the region falling into the same EC category for temperature.…

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