NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their latest ENSO discussion today. In it, they discuss the likelihood of El Nino continuing through the winter. By the April through June period they predict that neutral conditions are most likely, and by July through September there is almost an equal chance of neutral and La Nina conditions. Since this is in the most active part of the Atlantic Tropical Season and historically neutral and La Nina years are likely to be more active than typical El Nino years, that could portend another very active Atlantic tropical season next year. This would be especially true if the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures continue to be much warmer than the long-term average, as they were this past year. Of course, even in an active year like this past year (in spite of being an El Nino year) we may not see many impacts if most of the storms stay out to sea, so an active year does not necessarily mean that we will have more impacts. At this point, it is just something to note for next year.
You can read the latest discussion at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
