Most weather forecasts are pretty good at up to a week out, and even general trends to 10 days or more can be helpful for planning purposes. Climate forecasts for general patterns several months out can also be good, especially when there is a strong El Niño or La Niña event occurring. But in the two week to several month time scale, it is hard to make a good forecast. This article describes why that time scale is so tough to get right and describes some new methods for extending useful forecasts into this tricky time period. You can read it from NOAA here.

This figure illustrates the S2S or weather-climate prediction gap. It shows estimated forecast skill based on lead time or how far ahead the forecast is issued, as well as the types of atmospheric phenomena being predicted for each time range. Going from weather to seasonal forecasts, prediction skill decreases. Much less is known about forecast skill and predictability sources in the S2S range, 2 weeks up to a season. Credit: NOAA CPO graphic adapted from original by Elisabeth Gawthrop and Tony Barnston, IRI.