NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their latest ENSO advisory today. It shows that while there is still a strong El Nino present in the ocean, it is rapidly decaying and the models now suggest that it will be back in neutral conditions by the April through June period (83% chance). A swing to La Nina conditions is likely by June through August (62% chance). This has been well-predicted and indicates that the Atlantic tropical season is likely to be very active, not only from the lack of a jet stream over the Gulf and western Atlantic but also because the ocean continues to be much warmer than the long-term average. You can read more at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
