Every year in the ENSO blog, NOAA climate forecasters look back at the prediction for last season and discuss how good it was. This keeps them honest and shows that this year, the prediction was quite good, especially for the Southeast. As usual, temperature is easier to predict and get correct than precipitation, and that certainly turned out to be the case this year. The blog discusses how the verification was made and what factors contributed to differences between the forecasts and the final climate summary. You can read the full analysis at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/verification-2022-2023-us-winter-outlook.
