The stratosphere over the North Pole is showing signs of a developing Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), but there is no indication at this time of what impacts it might have, especially in the Southeast. Usually impacts from an SSW occur several weeks after the onset of its development in the stratosphere, but the strength and location of the strongest impacts are different in each event so we cannot say anything about what it might mean for the Southeast now. It is something we will be watching carefully over the next few weeks. I previously wrote about SSWs in January 2021. In that event, very cold air spilled into the central US in February and caused a lot of problems for the Plains and Texas, although the Southeast missed the worst of that event. The next event is likely to look different than that event, though. Whatever happens, we can expect to see a change in the weather pattern once the impacts reach the surface.
You can read more in the articles below.
Washington Post: A polar vortex disruption is underway. What it means is up in the air.
Climate.gov: Disrupted polar vortex brings sudden stratospheric warming in February 2023
The Guardian: Weather tracker: world braces for sudden stratospheric warming event
Progressive Farmer: Polar Vortex Chill May Hinder Fieldwork Start
