This outlook will be posted in the Peanut Pointers newsletter but I thought other producers might also find it useful:
Drought is almost entirely gone from the Southeastern US, with only a tiny sliver remaining in northeast Georgia. I expect that to be eliminated in the Drought Monitor map released on July 6, along with the abnormally dry conditions which mark the remainder of the drought. Rainfall across some parts of Georgia have been copious, with rainfalls up to 300% of normal, so irrigation there has not been needed. The rainfall and associated clouds have also kept the temperatures down below normal by blocking out some of the sun’s energy. In fact, there has been so much rain in some areas that farmers are having trouble getting out into the fields to spray, and fungal diseases are showing up in a number of crops. However, many parts of south Georgia have been below normal in rainfall for the last month, so conditions there are drier and more irrigation has been needed, even with the cooler temperatures. In fact, the southern counties have been largely missed by the rain that has occurred in north Georgia in the last couple of weeks so irrigation is especially needed in those locations.
The outlook for July and beyond shows that there is a continued chance of above normal rainfall for the next month, although that abates somewhat later in summer. Temperatures are expected to be closer to normal than in previous seasons, although there is not much skill in making summer forecasts, especially when ENSO conditions are neutral (not El Nino or La Nina). The neutral conditions do make it more likely that the Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than usual, so some areas could see a lot of rain from any storms that do materialize, but of course we don’t know where those will go, so areas right along the path could see a lot of rain while others outside the path could see none, similar to what happened in 2016 with Hurricanes Hermine and Matthew across the Southeast. Because of the increased chance of rainfall and the cooler temperatures, I expect that irrigation will be less needed than in some previous years, but of course it depends on the growing stage of the peanuts and the type of soil they are in as well. Whatever rain does come is likely to be in hit-or-miss showers which may cause widely variable conditions across short distances.
