I’ve been asked why the National Weather Service Office in Peachtree City, GA, is not issuing freeze warnings today even though tonight is the first expected occurrence of killing frost this year for parts of north and central Georgia. You can see the hole in the warnings on the national warning map below. Freeze warnings (dark purple) have been issued for large portions of Alabama and all of Mississippi and freeze watches (light blue) have been issued for areas southeast of Augusta. However, the Peachtree City office has only issued Special Weather Advisories (light tan) for freezing weather for their warning area in northern and central Georgia.
As I understand it, the NWS has determined that no freeze warnings will be issued for their warning area after November 20, under the assumption that most areas will have received a killing frost by that date. However, if you check cities in the southern part of their warning area, such as Eastman, the historical record shows that as many as three years in ten have not experienced a killing frost on November 20 for 32 F. Only half of all years there get down to 28 F by December 1 (curves below from the Southeast Regional Climate Center). The lowest that Columbus GA has gotten so far this year is 34 F and the lowest temperature for Atlanta this fall is 38 F. People in those areas are likely to get caught unprepared if they are expecting a NWS freeze warning after November 20.
Note that there are no freeze warnings issued for South or North Carolina either, even though those areas are also expected to have freezing temperatures. Most of those areas have already experienced a killing frost, so no additional warnings are provided once that occurs. The NWS offices in those areas did post watches and warnings in areas that have not experienced a killing frost yet.
If you live in many areas of the Southeast, including north and central Georgia, be prepared for a killing frost tonight and bring pets and tender plants indoors.
