I wanted to take a moment today to recognize the incredible work by the National Weather Service in warning about the tremendous flooding that affected South Carolina this week. These dedicated public servants work 24/7 to provide timely and useful weather and river forecasts for all of us every day, and often go out of their way to provide extra support in times of severe weather. I’ve known employees to go into work on their days off to help out in a weather crisis and even to camp out in the office when road conditions don’t allow them to come and go. All of this while their own families and homes are often in areas of danger as well.
The forecasts for this event were excellent two days ahead even though even some areas received even more rain than their forecasts predicted as the moisture streamed onshore. They were there to provide support to emergency managers and other state agencies ahead of the event as well as during the torrential rain. The highest rainfall measured in South Carolina was from a CoCoRaHS rain gauge operated by a NWS employee.
The cost for this tremendous service? A mere $3.00 per person per year, less than the cost of a pumpkin spice latte. I believe this is one of the highest and best examples of government working well to provide needed services to the American people and a true bargain. NWS data and forecasts are used by television and private forecasting firms to make their own forecasts. The Weather Channel, AccuWeather, Intellicast, and a host of other firms would not be able to provide their value-added forecast information without the observations and model results from the NWS.
Will they always get the forecast right? No, because the atmosphere is complex and always changing and there are still things we can improve (witness the problems predicting the track of Hurricane Joaquin correctly). But the accuracy of their forecasts have improved tremendously over time and there is now skill in the forecasts out to a week (and sometimes more). And their skill in communicating these forecasts and warnings to the public has also improved over time as new technologies have come online.
So thank you to all the National Weather Service employees and other meteorologists who work hard to keep us safe and dry–we appreciate your work!
(Disclaimer–I am a former NWS employee who studied extreme rainfalls for the Office of Hydrology many years ago.)
