Once more, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac have hit the bookstores and checkout aisles in the supermarkets, ready to provide instant weather forecasts for the next year to anyone who is willing to pay the price. And the media always cover this event as if there is any skill at all in their forecasts. Climatologists know better, and it drives us batty to know people actually use this information to make plans for the coming year. Perhaps you know someone who does.
A blog posting this week in The Vane explains why their forecasts are not accurate or are so vague as to be right just from climatology, not from any skill the publishers of these books have. So take their forecast of a long, cold winter with a very large grain of salt, and consult more reliable sources like NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for more reliable forecasts.
If you want to read more comments on the lack of rigor in the almanac forecasts from climatologists, you can read this blog post from the Washington Post today.
