Climate outlooks
-
High pressure will dominate the week, leaving all of the Southeast high and dry for the next seven days. Temperatures should be quite moderate and no chance of frost is seen in the long-range forecasts until the first week of November, although any forecast over a week out should be taken with some caution. The…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
NOAA released their latest 3-month predictions for November through January today. The maps show a clear El Nino signal in precipitation with wet conditions expected across southern AL and GA and northern FL, as expected from previous strong El Nino events. Temperature predictions show warmer than normal conditions across the northern part of the US…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
Climate prediction is a combination of looking at patterns that historically have affected our region in the past (analogies with previous events) and what computer models are saying about what we can expect this year based on large-scale weather patterns and how they are expected to evolve over time using mathematical formulas and current observations.…
-
I don’t put any faith in winter forecasts from the Old Farmer’s Almanac or the Farmers’ Almanac because over time scientists have shown that their forecasts are incorrect more often than they are right, although they are often so vague that it is hard to evaluate. But I know many farmers and others who consult…
-
The latest 7-day QPF map shows that now that this week’s rain is moving out to the northeast, it should be dry until late in the week when the next system brings rain back to the region except for a few small spots in southern FL and in Virginia. All the rain you see on…
Posted in: Climate outlooks -
NOAA released the latest ENSO update this morning. It continues to show that the current El Nino is purring along as expected and has an 80% chance of continuing through spring. You can read more about it in the latest ENSO blog at October 2023 El Niño update: big cats | NOAA Climate.gov or look…
-
After almost no rain at my house for most of the last month, I got a measly 0.03 inches in the gauge this morning. But good news! Those of us who have been lacking in moisture for the last few weeks will be happy to hear that rain has reappeared in the forecast for all…
Posted in: Climate outlooks