Climate outlooks
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Last week’s rain forecast of up to several inches was a little too generous compared to what most places actually got, although there were a few scattered areas of heavy rain. The next 7 days are also looking pretty wet,with rainfall up to four inches expected in some places. The weekend should be mostly dry…
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The East Coast is the focus of the heaviest rain this week, as a slow-moving front stalls in the area. Still, everywhere in the Southeast has at least some chance of rain every day for the next week, and that pattern is likely to continue into August as well. The wet conditions in the Carolinas…
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The latest edition of the Monthly Water Resources Outlook video from the National Weather Service has now been posted on YouTube. You can find it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX5GUCz2F90&feature=youtu.be.
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While El Niño has not officially started yet, and probably won’t be declared for a few months, the impacts of the expected El Niño are already showing up in predictions for this coming winter. The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center show that August is likely to be above normal in temperature but there…
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The latest 7-day QPF map shows at least a couple of inches of rain this week across the region. It’s hard to look at the forecast maps and see any 24-hour periods with no rain at all. The driest areas are likely to be northern Alabama and NW Georgia and the central Carolinas and Virginia…
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One of the benefits of all of our rain this year has been a reduction in the potential for wildfires. The four-month outlook for significant wildfires from the National Interagency Fire Center shows below-normal potential for each of the next four months. You can see the maps and read more using the link to the…
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The latest round of ENSO forecasts now puts the chances of an El Niño occurring this winter at 70%, up from 64% last month. Generally once you get past spring, forecasts become more reliable and trustworthy, although they are certainly not perfect. The El Niño, if it occurs as expected, is likely to bring cooler, cloudier…