NOAA’s latest El Niño blog entry came out while I was on vacation. You can read it here. In it they note that we are now in neutral conditions, since El Niño has finally decayed away. But the likelihood is that the ocean will swing to a La Niña pattern in the next few months, and that will probably last through next winter.
One of the most interesting things about the post is the discussion of why the probability of La Niña occurring has dropped to 55-60%, down from a higher probability a couple of months ago. This change has to do with a slow-down in the rate of ocean cooling. Read the blog post for more details!
