Do you ever get asked about where to get information on 50-year droughts?  I got one this week from a fire chief who was looking to certify dry hydrants and needed to know what a 50-year drought looks like.  While specific impacts of any drought on a pond or lake vary depending on drainage into the lake, surface area for evaporation, and soil type, you can get an idea of the reduction in precipitation due to a severe drought using a couple of drought atlas sources.

The National Drought Center has a Drought Risk Atlas at https://droughtatlas.unl.edu/.  The US Army Corps of Engineers has a National Drought Atlas https://library.water-resources.us/docs/atlas/Atlasintro.cfm.  Both of them can help to quantify how much precipitation is reduced in a 2% exceedance drought (which corresponds to a 50-year drought).  For a location in southern Georgia, the estimated 12-month precipitation in a 50-year drought was 0.65 times the annual average precipitation, or a reduction of 35%.

If you have other sources that you use to answer this question, please mail them to me–I am always looking for better data sources!

Source: https://www.ars.usda.gov/is/graphics/photos/apr13/d186-2.htm
Source: https://www.ars.usda.gov/is/graphics/photos/apr13/d186-2.htm