The Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly update on the ENSO today. The report indicates that while La Nina is still present, it is just barely holding on and is expected to end in the next month, leading to the return of neutral conditions. CPC is predicting a fairly quick swing to El Nino conditions by mid-summer, and those conditions are expected to continue through the winter months. Some scientists predict it could become a very strong “super El Nino” but there have been other years (such as 2014) when what was predicted to become a strong El Nino fizzled due to the spring “predictability barrier” that plagues many ENSO forecasts. The warming of the ocean due to climate change could also be a factor that could enhance an El Nino as well. You can read more about super El Ninos and the likely impacts of what one would be in this Washington Post article.
