The hurricane forecast group at Colorado State University released their first forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season this morning. It shows that based on their analysis using models and analog years, they are expecting another season that is more active than average but not quite as active as 2024. La Nina and neutral conditions in the summer both have the effect of decreasing the strength of the jet stream. This allows storms to develop vertically more quickly. Ocean temperatures are also warmer than average across a lot of the basin, adding potential fuel to development of tropical waves. You can read the full report at https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04.pdf or see more information from the Weather Channel at https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-04-03-april-hurricane-season-outlook-csu. It is important to keep in mind that it is not possible to predict exactly where those hurricanes and tropical storms will go because that depends on the specific weather patterns that are present when the storm is developing and moving, which are only known a few days ahead. Table 11 in their report shows the probabilities of individual states being hit this year but in general every state has a little higher chance than usual to the overall active year that is expected. They will be releasing updated forecasts in June and August. There are also many other groups that provide seasonal forecasts for hurricanes.
