After a long quiet spell, the Atlantic tropical season is starting to pick up, with three disturbances of at least 40 percent chance of developing in the next week. The one we have to watch is the most western one, currently identified as Investigation 91, which has an 80 percent chance of developing into a named storm (the next on the list is Francine) in the next week. The models are predicting that after it develops it will move north towards the northern Gulf Coast and then head NE over Louisiana and Mississippi.
Very few models are putting it over Alabama and points further east, but since we will likely be on the east side of the circulation, we will be experiencing a lot of moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. That will likely lead to heavy rain close and to the right of the path, especially in southern Alabama and Georgia and the Florida panhandle. It is likely to start in the west on Tuesday and then push north and east as the storm moves through the area. Those areas could also see some weak tornadoes and gusty winds. This is not expected to be as strong from a wind standpoint as Debby and since it will be moving faster, rain totals are likely to be smaller, but still a mess for farmers still recovering from the rain that fell during Debby. Other farmers who are in the dry part of the Southeast will likely welcome the rain to help tamp down the drought that has been developing there over the last month.
There are two other areas in the central and eastern Atlantic that show moderate probabilities of development, but the early model runs do not indicate that they are likely to be a threat to the Southeast, so for now just keep an eye on them as they move westward.
